Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,697$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(137 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,804.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 77.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,804.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(0.207 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,494$ on 2020-05-27

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,857$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(670 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,770.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11,770.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $623$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(125 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{552.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(552.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,105$ on 2020-05-27

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,546$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(51.7 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,073.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 125.2)}}\) (asimptote \(61,073.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $68$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.26 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{150.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 71.1)}}\) (asimptote \(150.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,113$ on 2020-05-27

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,937$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(439 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{414,765.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 119.6)}}\) (asimptote \(414,765.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $552$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(18 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,934$ on 2020-05-27

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,043$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,951.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 68.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,951.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(18.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $866$ on 2020-05-27

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,666$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(515 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,503.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 84.7)}}\) (asimptote \(53,503.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $816$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(79.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{961.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(961.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,645$ on 2020-05-27

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $334$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(157 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.6}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.17 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.8}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2$ on 2020-05-27

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $390$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(17 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{439.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(439.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4$ on 2020-05-27

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $231$ on 2020-05-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Tunisia recovered 91%
Morocco recovered 27%

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,051$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(323 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,032.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,032.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(17.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 17.5)}}\) (asimptote \(45.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-05-27

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,601$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(861 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,016.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,016.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $202$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(63.2 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 20.2)}}\) (asimptote \(191.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,421$ on 2020-05-27